Sunday, January 4, 2009
Oscar 2009: Final Nomination Predictions
This year, for my final Academy Awards nomination predix, I'm gonna keep the personal thoughts to a minimum. Let's just trim the fat and get down to business. Here's who and what I believe will be vying for the gold on February 22:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis in "Doubt"
Rosemarie DeWitt in "Rachel Getting Married"
Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet in "The Reader"
*Brief thoughts: I'm a little biased here. I simply cannot drop the phenomenal Rosemarie DeWitt out of my top five picks in this category. Taraji Henson will likely slip in for her work in "Benjamin Button," but the slot belongs to DeWitt.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin in "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt"
Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight"
Dev Patel in "Slumdog Millionaire"
*Brief thoughts: I'm thinking this race is going to be an exact repeat of the SAG nominations. The only one who could topple the list is "Revolutionary Road"'s Michael Shannon, but no one seems to even be talking about the film apart from Winslet's tour de force. On that note...
Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married"
Sally Hawkins in "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Angelina Jolie in "Changeling"
Meryl Streep in "Doubt"
Kate Winslet in "Revolutionary Road"
*Brief thoughts: It really pains me to include Jolie in this list but it's not really about what I think. Her overacted perf. has nabbed Globe and SAG noms and she's a Golden Satellite winner. Sorry, Melissa Leo and Kristin Scott Thomas -- I feel your pain.
Clint Eastwood in "Gran Torino"
Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor"
Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn in "Milk"
Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler"
*Brief thoughts: I believe that the veterans will dominate this category. The Academy loves Eastwood, Jenkins has mucho support, and there's no stopping the Langella/Penn/Rourke trifecta. Pitt may end up representing the (slightly) younger bracket, but his Benjamin Button was more of an f/x creation.
Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire"
David Fincher for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Ron Howard for "Frost/Nixon"
Christopher Nolan for "The Dark Knight"
Gus Van Sant for "Milk"
*Brief thoughts: This may well be the first year since 2005 that the directing race matches the picture race. The only other potential nominee is Andrew Stanton for "Wall-E," but that film will probably have to settle for nods for original screenplay and animated feature.
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
*Brief thoughts: At this point, the only contender that could upset this lineup is "Doubt," which could make good on its title and wow the non-believers. However, it isn't likely, and "The Dark Knight" will probably land the fifth spot, rightfully receiving recognition as one of the defining films of 2008.
How close am I? We'll see on January 22 (a.k.a. Christmas), when the nominees for the 81st Annual Academy Awards are announced.
Want more Oscar prediction fun? Wanna check my accuracy record? To view my nomination guesses from last year, CLICK HERE.